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Thema: Nizhnekamskneftekhim (WKN 918029)

  1. #61
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    30 % Kursrückgang!

    Wo sind die News?

    Gruss Köpenicker!

  2. Nach oben    #62

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    Nizhnekamskneftekhim

    NKNC holds 11 Dec extra-ordinary shareholders meeting about additional
    placement of common shares among existing shareholders on 26 Oct.
    2006y.
    The amount of additional shares - 25 780 096 000 common shares.

    Grüße
    Karniggel

  3. Nach oben    #63
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    eine weitere Ferkelei für ADR-Halter im Anmarsch?

    http://imperium.de/animationen/anims5/an553.gif

  4. Nach oben    #64

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    glaube dies trifft alle?

    nicht nur die ADRs?
    Obwohl schon die große Frage ist wie die BoNY diease Massnahme umsetzt
    Kann jemand hier im Board rechnerisch aus der o.g. Meldung abschätzen wohin der Kurs (für die ADR) noch fällt wenn die neuen shares auf den Markt geworfen werden?
    Wie ist die Situation wenn die neuen shares auch den Haltern der ADR vom Stichtag 26.10. angeboten werden?
    Entschuldigt die vielen Fragen aber ich bin leider nicht tief genug in der Materie. Danke für die Unterstützung.
    Schöne Grüße aus dem Allgäu!
    ZNG


  5. Nach oben    #65
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    Zitat Zitat von ZNG
    nicht nur die ADRs?
    Obwohl schon die große Frage ist wie die BoNY diease Massnahme umsetzt
    Kann jemand hier im Board rechnerisch aus der o.g. Meldung abschätzen wohin der Kurs (für die ADR) noch fällt wenn die neuen shares auf den Markt geworfen werden?
    Wie ist die Situation wenn die neuen shares auch den Haltern der ADR vom Stichtag 26.10. angeboten werden?
    Entschuldigt die vielen Fragen aber ich bin leider nicht tief genug in der Materie. Danke für die Unterstützung.
    Schöne Grüße aus dem Allgäu!
    ZNG
    Das Kapital wird nominal verfünfzehnfacht oder um das 15fache angehoben. Will mich da nicht so genau festlegen.
    Die Zeichnung erfolgt zu einem Rubel pro neuer Originalaktie.
    Das heißt aus einem ADR (derzeit 3,70Euro "wert") erhält man das Recht 150 neue Originale oder 15 neue ADR zu zeichnen.
    15*1 RUR/35 RUR/EUR=0,42Euro Kapitalbedarf aus einer Originalaktie
    oder 4,20 Euro Kapitalbedarf, um die KE für ein ADR mitzumachen.
    Eigentlich sollte sich der Kurs der jetzt gehandelten alten Anteilsscheine in etwa auf das Niveau von 1 Rubel abgesenkt haben.
    Da der Kurs das so penetrant verweigert, gehe ich mal davon aus, daß die KE noch lange nicht durch ist. Beschluß auf der HV hin oder her.
    Knackpunkt sind die Vorzüge, die genauso entwertet werden, aber kein Zeichnungsrecht besitzen.
    Kommen die Kläger mit ihrem berechtigten Einwand durch, so sind auch meine Vorzugsnizhnes wieder ordentlich was "Wert".
    Insgesamt wäre für mich eine sechsstellige Summe allein für die KE der Stämme, die ich nicht von heute auf morgen aufbringen kann.

    Wir sind weiter in der Schwebe.

    Zum Selber nachlesen die russische Meldung (kann man sich ja problemlos, allerdings schwer verständlich übersetzen lassen):
    http://gazeta.etatar.ru/news/view/11/23499
    Gruß
    LR

  6. Nach oben    #66

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    Mal wieder neue Nachrichten von Nizhnekamskneftekhim:


    26.04.2007
    Shareholders of “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” INC summed up the year 2006
    April 26, “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” INC held an annual regular Conference of shareholders. R. Minnikhanov-the TR Prime Minister, A. Metshin-Head of the Nizhnekamsk Municipal Region and other invitees took part in the event.
    V. Busygin, General Director of “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” INC, delivered a summary report on the 2006 operation results stating that the Company’s commodity output amounted to RUR 46bn, which is, in the established prices, by 15.6% more as compared with the preceding year. The index of physical advancement compared to the year 2005 constituted 105.5%, sales income yielded RUR 5.8bn, average monthly wage of the Company employees reached RUR 16.6 K, which is 14.3% higher of the 2005 level.
    In the reporting year, the Company launched a Halobutyl Rubber Finishing Line “Welding 2”, Isoprene One-Stage Synthesis Unit, commercialized more than 10 PS grades, signed an ABS-Plastics License Agreement with “Polimeri Europa”. 11 October 2006, a PP Unit was commissioned. Over the past year two months, 5 homopolymer grades were commercialized, including bimodal ones for the first time in Russia. Oligomer Plant commercialized the process of producing 4 new highly remunerative grades of polyethers – polyethylene glycols.
    “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” INC effects payments to the budgets of all levels in time and in full, which totaled over RUR 5.3bn in 2006.
    In 2007, the commodity output sale proceeds are planned for increase up to RUR 55bn, sales income will level up to RUR 7.6bn. The average monthly wage will indicate RUR 18.2 K. Capital investments will run up to RUR 7bn.
    Addressing the Conference, the TR Prime Minister R. Minnikhanov stated that “Nizhnekamskneftekhim” INC had successfully materialized the objectives put forward by the TR Government, Security Council. He defined the Ethylene Complex advancement and completion of the Town Water Treatment Plant construction as priority targets in the activities of the Company Board of Directors and Executive Management.
    The Conference approved the annual report, the annual accounting, which includes a gain & loss report and a profit distribution report based on the outcome of the fiscal year 2006, the dividend rates on the Company shares for the year 2006.
    The shareholders will be paid dividends in monies at the rate of 54.48% of a face value on ordinary and preference shares, which will amount to RUR 997m or 30% of the Company’s net gain per the 2006 results.


    Wegen der KE gibt es keine neuen Nachrichten. Weiß jemand etwas neues?

    Gruß Picker

  7. Nach oben    #67
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    Ja, natürlich, die KE wurde vom zuständigen Registrationsamt nicht zugelassen.
    Es war ein schönes Spiel, sich die Aktien zu Panikpreisen zu sichern.
    Das lief auch schon bei anderen Firmen.
    In den Hintern gekniffen ist eigentlich nur, wer nach dem Kurssturz verkauft hat.
    Gruß
    LR

  8. Nach oben    #68

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    in den Hintern gekniffen...

    In den Hintern gekniffen ist eigentlich nur, wer nach dem Kurssturz verkauft hat.

    Ich hatte ein "Abstauberlimit" zu 5,7 drin. Wurde dann bedient und es ging weiter abwärts. Habe zwar nach dem Kurssturz nicht verkauft, fühle mich aber gekniffen!
    Sowas passiert halt.

    Hoffentlich sehen wir wieder bessere Kurse

    Onkel Wanja

  9. Nach oben    #69

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    Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK)

    Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK) produced 36.145 bn RUR worth of products for January-August 2007, exceeding results of past year by 22.9% in existing prices, reports the company. According to company’s data, for past 8 months NKNK pumped over 251 th tons of ethylene, 32% above results of past year.
    According to company’s corporate newspaper, through whole summer all ethylene pipelines’ pumping stations underwent complete renovation and maintenance. Newspaper also reports that enterprise expects a shift of structure. To 2010 company intends to own only production plants as a part of company. While all auxiliary branches become subsidiaries of NKNK, cooperating under contracts.
    We see given news as stably positive, as growth of production results is at range of planned growth, expected at year’s end, and already included in model of fair price. At year’s end we forecast growth of sales at 26.5% to 2216 mn USD; profit is set to rise to 27% (225 mn USD). We also think that company is attractive for investments. Especially considering decrease of breakdown rate of production after complete renovation of equipment and change of branches structure, in order to construct vertical integration of company, owed to this we see company’s growth potential.

    Grüße

    Onkel Wanja

  10. Nach oben    #70
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  11. Nach oben    #71

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    Schön...

    ...dass dieser scheintote Thread doch noch hie und da zuckt. Danke Hasi, für den interessanten Input!

    bilch

  12. Nach oben    #72
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    Zitat Zitat von bilch
    ...dass dieser scheintote Thread doch noch hie und da zuckt. Danke Hasi, für den interessanten Input!

    bilch
    bin zwar bei Nizne nicht mit dabei, trotzdem gerne...

  13. Nach oben    #73
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    The AGM of Tatarstan petrochemicals giant, Nizhnekamskneftekhim (RTS: NKNC: $1.54 BUY; NKNCP: $1.08
    BUY), approved dividends of R0.67 ($0.03) for common and preferred shares, as recommended by the BoD

  14. Nach oben    #74
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    "Nizhnekamskneftekhim" INC Board of Directors summed up results of 9 months operation in 2008

    28.11.08, “ Nizhnekamskneftekhim” INC Board of Directors held its regular session presided by A. Shigabutdinov – Chairman of the Board, General Director of PSC "TAIF".

    Over 9 months 2008, the Company's marketable output constituted RUR 56.5 bn. The product release in comparable prices ran to 111.6%, in current prices – to 141.6% versus the relevant last year period. The Company's net profit totalled RUR 4.14 bn.

    The maximum gain in production versus the 2007 level was reached for ethylene, propylene, polypropylene, neonols, isoprene, polybutadiene, butyl and halobutyl types of rubber, polystyrene, isoprene, polyethylene glycols.

    Basically, a novel type of rubber, LiBR, was commercialized in the current year, which enables to discontinue imports of such for HIPS production. In August, a third PS Unit was launched raising PS total capacity to 170 Kt. The Ethylene Complex capacity reached 600 Kta. A Polyethylene Facility will be commissioned by the year-end. All three turbines of the captive energy supplier GTU-75 were put in operation; the Unit is currently operating at full capacity.

    The Board took into consideration the results of the Company's 9 months operation in 2008, including the outturn of the plan in utilizing and financing the capital investments, and singled out the operation's positive results.

    The session also discussed a number of issues relating to the financial and economic activities of "Nizhnekamskneftekhim" INC.



    Press service Nizhnekamskneftekhim Inc.
    423574, R.F. Republic of Tatarstan, Nizhnekamsk, Nizhnekamskneftekhim Inc.
    Tel.: +7 ( 8555) 37–78-64
    Tel/ fax : +7 ( 8555) 37–74-92
    E-mail : inform@nknh.ru
    Internet: www nknh.ru

  15. Nach oben    #75

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    ... und was macht der Kurs ? Von 10 auf 1 !
    Grausam !

    Picker
    Angehängte Dateien Angehängte Dateien

  16. Nach oben    #76
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    Zitat Zitat von Picker
    ... und was macht der Kurs ? Von 10 auf 1 !
    Grausam !

    Picker
    ...eindeutig Kaufkurse (aber keine ADR's wegen der Depositärbank!)

  17. Nach oben    #77
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    ...habe mir am RTS zum Schnäppchenpreis von $0.10 eine "Hand voll" Nizhnekamskneftekhim Pref's (NKNCP) ins Depot geholt
    http://www.imperium.de/animationen/anims5/jagt006.gif

  18. Nach oben    #78
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    Donnerstag, 12.03.2009

    Nizhnekamsneftekhim: PE-Produktion in Betrieb genommen

    Am Heimatstandort hat Russlands größter Polymerproduzent Nizhnekamskneftekhim Inc (Nizhnekamsk / Tatarstan) Anfang Februar 2009 die erste Polyethylen-Anlage in Betrieb genommen. Bisher produzierte das Unternehmen neben zahlreichen Vorprodukten sowie Gummi-Typen lediglich Polystyrol und Polypropylen. Die von der Tecnimont SpA (Mailand / Italien) errichtete Anlage mit einer Kapazität von 230.000 jato arbeitet mit der „Spheripol"-Gasphasentechnologie von LyondellBasell (Rotterdam / Niederlande).

    Damit wächst die Polymer-Kapazität des russischen Unternehmens auf 600.000 jato – verteilt auf PS mit 170.000 jato, PP mit 200.000 jato sowie die Menge der jetzt in Betrieb genommene PE-Anlage.

    Internet:

    www.nknk.ru
    www.tecnimont.it
    www.lyondellbasell.com

    © KI Kunststoff Information, Bad Homburg

  19. Nach oben    #79
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    Ist die KE noch ein Thema?

    Das Kapital wird nominal verfünfzehnfacht oder um das 15fache angehoben. Will mich da nicht so genau festlegen.
    Die Zeichnung erfolgt zu einem Rubel pro neuer Originalaktie.
    Das heißt aus einem ADR (derzeit 3,70Euro "wert") erhält man das Recht 150 neue Originale oder 15 neue ADR zu zeichnen.
    15*1 RUR/35 RUR/EUR=0,42Euro Kapitalbedarf aus einer Originalaktie
    oder 4,20 Euro Kapitalbedarf, um die KE für ein ADR mitzumachen.
    Eigentlich sollte sich der Kurs der jetzt gehandelten alten Anteilsscheine in etwa auf das Niveau von 1 Rubel abgesenkt haben.
    Da der Kurs das so penetrant verweigert, gehe ich mal davon aus, daß die KE noch lange nicht durch ist. Beschluß auf der HV hin oder her.
    Knackpunkt sind die Vorzüge, die genauso entwertet werden, aber kein Zeichnungsrecht besitzen.
    Kommen die Kläger mit ihrem berechtigten Einwand durch, so sind auch meine Vorzugsnizhnes wieder ordentlich was "Wert".
    Insgesamt wäre für mich eine sechsstellige Summe allein für die KE der Stämme, die ich nicht von heute auf morgen aufbringen kann.

    Wir sind weiter in der Schwebe.

    Zum Selber nachlesen die russische Meldung (kann man sich ja problemlos, allerdings schwer verständlich übersetzen lassen):
    http://gazeta.etatar.ru/news/view/11/23499
    Gruß
    LR

  20. Nach oben    #80
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    laut Registrierungsbehörde hat sich die Sache vor knapp 2 Jahren totgestorben Köpenicker

  21. Nach oben    #81
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    (NKNCP) bei $0.115 gestern nochmals nachgelegt.

    http://www.imperium.de/animationen/anims5/jagt006.gif

  22. Nach oben    #82
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    Nizhnekamskneftekhim reduced its share in Polimer-NKNKH.

    27/10/2009 13:26

    Nizhnekamskneftekhim reduced its share in Polimer-NKNKH to 73.7971% from 100%, the company informed.

    The Company is one of the largest petrochemical complexes in Eastern Europe. It has 120 kinsd of products in the assortment; the synthetic rubber and styrene being of priority.

    The share capital is worth 1.83bn rub. split in 1611256ths (88.04%) common and 218983.75ths (11.96%) preferred stocks of 1 rub. par.

    The IH net profit declined (RAS) 9 fold to 406.776mln rub. from 3.66bn rub. prior year; net lossses in IQ gained 1.758bn rub. against 1.92bn rub. prior year; revenues being down 58.8% to 11.609bn rub. from 18.436bn rub.; gross profit - 47.1% to 2.109bn rub. from 3.989bn rub.; profit from sales - 941.312mln rub. from 2.716bn rub.; pretax profit reached 2.157bn rub. vs. 2.522bn rub. in profit prior year.




    "AK&M", 27/10/2009

  23. Nach oben    #83
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    Metropol zu Nizhnekamskneftekhin:

    ________________________________________
    We plan to resume coverage of Nizhnekamskneftekhim with Buy recommendations for both common and preferred shares. Greatest potential upside in prefs.
    NKNC RU: BUY | Fair Value: USD 0.59 | Current Price: USD 0.53 | Upside/Downside: 11%
    NKNCP RU: BUY | Fair Value: USD 0.32 | Current Price: USD 0.20 | Upside/Downside: 60%
    We plan to resume coverage of Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNC) common stock with a new DCF-based fair value of USD 0.59 per share and a 12% upside. We note the recovery of the petrochemical market in the short-term, but we think this is limited with an unfavorable outlook for the operating environment in the medium-term as well as the possibility of an additional equity placement. However, our fair value for preferred shares is USD 0.32, providing an upside of 58%, and we upgrade to a Buy.
    Adverse trends for feedstock vs. product prices should squeeze margins in 2011 after a recovery in 2010
    Our principal argument is that major new PE and PP production facilities scheduled for launch worldwide in 2010-2012 could put prices under pressure from 2011 until 2014. Our outlook is reinforced by the fact that a higher share of global ethylene – the PE monomer – should be produced from natural gas, which is cheaper feedstock than the naphtha that NKNC currently uses. Overall, although the outlook for synthetic rubber prices appears more optimistic, we expect that NKNC’s naphtha-fueled polymer production method will significantly depress operating margins.
    Following EBITDA margins of 10-12% between 2005 and 2008, we expect NKNC’s margin to collapse to 5.4% in 2009, primarily driven by the combination of a relatively mild decline in netback prices for naphtha (vs. international prices) with the strengthening rouble. Our expectations could be implicitly confirmed by recent management guidance for RAS-based income from sales for 2009, which is anticipated to decline to RUB 2.9bn vs. RUB 7.5bn in 2008. Going forward, we expect NKNC’s EBITDA margin to recover to 10% in 2011, then to decline to 6% in 2011, and increase gradually to a pre-crisis level of 11% by 2016.
    Debt is a concern, but manageable
    At the beginning of 2009, NKNC’s total debt was RUB 20.1bn, implying net debt to EBITDA of a reasonable 2.1x. According to 3Q 09 RAS accounts, total debt decreased to RUB 17.8bn. Despite this reduction, we anticipate close to 5.8x net debt / EBITDA mainly due to a 59% decline in EBITDA in 2009, as well as an increase of RUB 2.4bn in total debt needed to finance capex in excess of operating cash flow. Moreover, amid the unfavorable operating environment, we expect the ratio to stay above 2.5x over 2010-2013.
    Despite this gloomy outlook, total outstanding debt does not appear threatening to us. We believe NKNC will roll over its maturing plus amortizing debt, until the environment starts to improve. This should not be difficult as the company has good refinancing opportunities from domestic banks.
    Risks
    We plan to reiterate our major concern of a possible additional equity placement by NKNC. However, we argue that there seems to be no sense in expanding capacity before 2014. Thus, any public comments by management or shareholders on the cancellation of NKNC’s additional equity placement could cause the company’s shares to soar, as the market is probably still pricing in this event. Numerically, if we reduce our company-specific risk premium for the WACC by 3%, and apply a 40% discount for lack of voting rights in valuing the preferred shares, our target prices for common and preferred shares would then climb to USD 0.87 (up 48%) and USD 0.64 (up 103%) respectively.
    In addition, a trust management agreement under which OAO Sviazinvestneftekhim transferred its interest in 25.2% of NKNC’s share capital to a member of the TAIF Group is due to end in November 2010. The agreement permits OOO TAIF-Invest to manage and vote the shares, and also grants TAIF-Invest full control over the company. Although we believe it is likely that the deal will be prolonged, this is another possible source of uncertainty.
    We believe prefs could provide a material upside
    Although NKNC looks overpriced relative to peers, we plan to place a Buy recommendation on ordinary shares under very conservative assumptions. Our view is that buying preferred stock is a good idea both in the long and short term. Beyond our fundamental view, reinforced by a DDM valuation, we draw attention to the technical attractiveness of the prefs: the market-implied discount rate is currently near 64%, or close to the upper bound of the historical corridor, while the 1-year average discount is 61%.

  24. Nach oben    #84
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    Nizhnekamskneftekhim will pay the dividends.

    15/03/2010
    09:06
    Nizhnekamskneftekhim BOD redommended the holders to affirm the dividends payment in the volume of 128.116mln rub. including 112.787mln rub. on common and 15.328mln rub. on preferred stocks, the company informed.

    The annual meeting will be held Apr. 15.
    The Company is one of the largest petrochemical complexes in Eastern Europe.

    It has 120 kinsd of products in the assortment; the synthetic rubber and styrene being of priority.

    The share capital is worth 1.83bn rub. split in 1611256ths (88.04%) common and 218983.75ths (11.96%) preferred stocks of 1 rub. par.

    The 9-month net profit (RAS) moved down 4.3 fold to 730.353mln rub. from 4.136bn rub.; revenues - 26.7% to 42.447bn rub. from 57.89bn rub.; gross profit - 45.4% to 6.476bn rub. from 11.862bn rub.; profit from sales - 2.8 fold to 2.652bn rub. from 7.521bn rub.; pretax profit - 6 fold to 957.443mln rub. from 5.714bn rub.

    "AK&M", 15/03/2010

  25. Nach oben    #85
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    DIVIDEND INFORMATION - 19.03.2010 - 2

    FOLGENDE WERTPAPIERE WERDEN AM 19.03.2010 EX DIVIDENDE GEHANDELT.
    THE EX-DIVIDEND DAY OF THE FOLLOWING SHARES WILL BE 19.03.2010.

    INSTR ISIN INSTRUMENT NAME DIVIDEND AMOUNT
    OAO US6549181013 NIZHNEKAMSK. ADR RL 1 0.017 EUR

    © 2010 Xetra Newsboard

  26. Nach oben    #86
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  27. Nach oben    #87
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    ________________________________________
    We are downgrading our recommendation for NKNC common shares to a Hold amid upward movement in share price and limited fundamental upside. However, we reiterate our Buy recommendation for prefs.
    NKNC RU: HOLD | Fair Value: USD 0.59 | Current Price: USD 0.57 | Upside 4%
    NKNCP RU: BUY | Fair Value: USD 0.32 | Current Price: USD 0.21 | Upside 52%
    We are downgrading our recommendation on Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNC) common shares to a Hold amid an upward movement in the stock price since 2nd March 2010, when we issued a re-initiation report on the company. We believe there is no more upside in the stock due to fundamental reasons and, thus, reiterate our fair value of USD 0.59 per share.
    Yesterday’s substantial disclosure by NKNC revealed that its 2009 RAS-based net income showed a 75% decrease y-o-y to RUB 424mn, implying a net loss of RUB 306mn for 4Q 09. This is not a surprise to us, since on March 12 NKNC’s BoD announced a 75% decrease in the dividend payout for 2009, which allowed us to estimate the RAS bottom line at RUB 427mn. We argued that our brutal forecast of an 80% decline in 2009 IFRS net income (to RUB 309mn vs. RUB 1,532mn) that we published recently in our report, looked absolutely realistic.
    Interestingly, NKNC also said yesterday that this loss was primarily due to rising raw material costs, and the 3Q 09 substantial net income of RUB 1.1bn was driven mainly by FX and other paper gains. Our main argument in the report was a decreasing petrochemical margin.
    In addition, we still see no significant rebound in production, as the February output report showed no m-o-m increase, except for PE, in our estimates. Overall, we reiterate our view that the fundamental upside for common shares is limited.
    Quelle: Metropol

  28. Nach oben    #88
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    NKNC reported March output demonstrating no m-o-m increase, except for PE, according to our estimates. This underpins our view that the upside for common shares is limited, while there is still a lucrative upside on prefs.
    NKNC RU: HOLD | Fair Value: USD 0.59 | Current Price: USD 0.55 | Upside/Downside: 7%
    NKNCP RU: BUY | Fair Value: USD 0.32 | Current Price: USD 0.21 | Upside/Downside: 52%
    Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNC) increased its output at comparable prices by 28% y-o-y in January-March 2010, to RUB 16bn. At current prices, output increased to RUB 20bn from RUB 11bn. On a product basis, butyl rubber (including halobutyl) was up by 2% y-o-y to 35kt for the period, while polystyrene output rose by 21% y-o-y to 45kt, and polypropylene output increased by 12% to 49kt. NKNC also produced 34kt of polyethylene in the first three months.
    Adjusting for a day count effect, we see that March output was relatively flat on all product lines compared to February, with the exception of polyethylene (PE) production, which increased from 11kt to 14kt, or 27% m-o-m.
    In February 09, NKNC launched a 230kt PE capacity facility, and we expect that it should produce up to 180kt of PE in 2010, or 15kt per month on average. As far as other products are concerned, monthly average production rates for January-March 2010 imply only a 3% increase vs. the 2009 monthly average for butyl rubber (while we expect 15% growth y-o-y in 2010), a marginal increase for polypropylene of 3.4% (coinciding with our year growth estimate) and an attractive 16% growth in polystyrene production, outperforming our estimate for the year.
    We attribute such a good performance in y-o-y terms mostly to a low base effect. All in all, we suggest that the results underpin our 2010 outlook that NKNC should not see a more than 15% recovery in its bulk products output with the primary growth driver being PE production. This supports our view that the upside for ordinary stocks is limited, and we reiterate that prefs, with the current discount to common shares of 62%, are materially undervalued, in our view.

  29. Nach oben    #89
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    Quelle: Metropol________________________________________

    NKNC held an AGM yesterday, disclosing several important issues for the company, including a significant reduction in the investment program. This considerably decreases the likelihood of an additional share issue, in our view.
    NKNC RU: HOLD | Fair Value: USD 0.59 | Current Price: USD 0.55 | Upside/Downside: 7%
    NKNCP RU: BUY | Fair Value: USD 0.32 | Current Price: USD 0.21 | Upside/Downside: 52%
    Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNC) held an AGM yesterday. As expected, shareholders approved the dividend of RUB 0.07 per ordinary and preferred share, which is equivalent to 30% of the RUB 424mn RAS-based net income. Although the company had already disclosed the bottom line for 2009, FY results are yet to be reported yet. The company has also disclosed several important facts regarding its production and investment plans.
    Selective RAS disclosure for 2009 and 1Q 2010
    NKNC’s commercial output totaled to RUB 57bn in 2009 (vs. RUB 70bn in 2008); product sales amounted to RUB 60.3bn (vs. RUB 71bn in 2008). Assuming the last year’s difference between the RAS and IFRS-based figures, our estimate for 2009 product sales of RUB 63.4bn under IFRS seems absolutely justified.
    By 2009-end, debt decreased marginally to RUB 16bn, compared to RUB 19bn on the 1st of January 09, while we expected it to expand by RUB 2bn during 2009. Taking into account very weak 2009 results, this debt decrease seems very controversial with a considerable increase in capex by 50% y-o-y, to RUB 14.4bn. Essentially, according to our estimates, with the maximum of RUB 3bn in operating cash flow generated in 2009 (vs. RUB 7bn in 2008), such a debt and capex would imply roughly a RUB 10bn cash inflow from working capital changes, which seems absolutely unrealistic to us.
    As far as 1Q 2010 reporting is concerned, NKNC saw a considerable net income of RUB 1.3bn, the commercial output was above RUB 20bn, with the March figure being at a record high of RUB 7.5bn. Albeit an increase was primarily driven by NKNC’s new polyethylene plant, these figures are more optimistic than our revenue forecast under IFRS for 2010 by approximately 10%. In the meantime, NKNC’s BoD expects to see the bottom line of RUB 3bn in 2010, which is exactly the same as we model.
    Production plan and capex program
    Most importantly, NKNC cut its RUB 125bn investment program, which we deemed to be absolutely unsustainable, reducing it to just RUB 22bn for 2010-2012. Similarly to what we argued for in our report, the company had to postpone its over-ambitious plan to increase ethylene production to 1mnt.
    On the other hand, the program still implies more than RUB 7bn in capex during 2010-2012, which is twice as much as we model. NKNC intends to increase synthetic rubbers production to 750-800k tons vs. the current 400kt. We still doubt these figures, and reiterate our forecast of a 12% growth in SR production in 2010 and 10% in 2011, which is quite optimistic in our view.
    Overall, the AGM revealed several important implications. Firstly, by now, we see that our operating outlook for the company is reasonable, despite some contradictions with the RAS-based figures. Secondly, we outline that the decrease in capex is favorable for the company, as reduces uncertainty over inefficient and value destructive capital spending, as we argued before. And finally, we do not exclude as a result of this cut, NKNC’s shareholders may officially renounce its plans to carry out additional share issue, which is still discounted by the market, in our view. For the magnitude of this event, please see our recent report.

  30. Nach oben    #90
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    NizhnekamskNK offers generous upside

    We restore coverage of Nizhnekamskneftekhim (RTS: NKNC, NKNCP), the biggest
    Russian producer of synthetic rubber. Focus on Chinese and SEA markets, localization of
    automobile production in Russia, and support from regional government make the
    company attractive and we recommend to BUY the shares with target prices of $0.62 per
    common and $0.25 per pref.

    RMG


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